Marco Andretti Listed as Favorite in Indianapolis 500, but Why?

Oddsmakers have had their say for the driver most likely to win the 98^th running of the Indianapolis 500 on Sunday, May 25. According to the World Features Syndicate, Marco Andretti is the favorite at 5-1 odds to win the Greatest Spectacle in Racing at the famed Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

My only question is have the oddsmakers ever watched the IndyCar Series?

Marco Andretti has largely been a disappointment in his eight seasons in the IndyCar Series. He only has two career wins in 139 races (one in his rookie season of 2006 at the road course in Sonoma and one in 2011 at the short track in Iowa). He’s also never finished better than fifth (2013) in the championship standings.

For those race fans that may be more familiar with NASCAR than open wheel racing, Marco Andretti is basically the equivalent to Martin Truex Jr.

However, the Indianapolis 500 has statistically been one of Andretti’s best tracks. He has a respectable 12^th place average finish in the race with top five finishes in half of his eight Indianapolis 500 starts. Marco’s best finish in the Indianapolis 500 is second place, which he accomplished in his rookie race of 2006 narrowly losing to Sam Hornish Jr. in the second closest finish in Indy 500 history. He has come close again with two third place finishes in 2008 and 2010 and a fourth place finish last season.

Still Marco’s good runs at Indianapolis aren’t exactly reason for him to be considered the favorite given his overall career numbers and some of the other drivers in the field.

Penske Racing’s Helio Castroneves, a 6-1 favorite, is a three-time winner of the Indianapolis 500 (2002, 2003 & 2009) and is looking to become just the fourth driver (A.J. Foyt, Al Unser Sr. and Rick Mears) to win the coveted race four times. Castroneves will be starting the race from the second row on the grid, the same row as Andretti.

If anybody should be the favorite for the Indianapolis 500 it’s Castroneves.

But, also in the mix for the Indianapolis 500 victory lane milk is the reigning champion Tony Kanaan, who up until his fan-favorite win last season was one of the greatest drivers in the sport’s history to never win its biggest race. Kanaan always gets around the Brickyard well and with the monkey finally off of his back he’s raring to make it two in a row. He’s only a 15-1 favorite though, probably because his Ganassi Honda qualified in mid-pack.

Also, a guy who should be among the favorites is Ed Carpenter who drives and owns the fastest car from qualifying, having won the pole position for the second consecutive year. Carpenter has never won the race, but has turned the fifth most laps at the track among active drivers and has a trio of top 10 finishes to his name. Like Andretti, Carpenter only has two career wins, but those have come in the last three seasons in likely lesser equipment than Andretti’s Andretti Autosport ride and at the extremely high speed tracks of Kentucky and Fontana. Carpenter is an 8-1 favorite.

Marco Andretti wasn’t even the fastest Andretti Autosport car in qualifying, being bested by his teammate James Hinchcliffe, who’ll start the race second after overcoming a concussion just a week previously in the inaugural Grand Prix race at Indy. Hinchliffe is also an 8-1 favorite.

Then you’ve got the guys who’ve been here before like Scott Dixon, the sport’s reigning champion who won this race in 2008. In fact, Dixon has some of the greatest success at Indy – in 11 career races he’s only finished outside of the top 10 three times and has five top five finishes. His average Indy 500 finish is a terrific eighth place. Like Carpenter and Hinchcliffe, Dixon is an 8-1 favorite.

Judging by his career statistics, his competition and his qualifying runs it doesn’t appear that Marco Andretti should really be considered the favorite to win the race. So, why is he?

It’s because of his name and the story.

There isn’t a more famous name in open wheel racing than Andretti. There isn’t a more famous race in open wheel racing than the Indianapolis 500. But, despite this fact the Andretti name has been known more over the years for its failures and bad luck at the great race than its successes. Mario Andretti won the race very early in his racing career in 1969, but the Andretti name has had a gigantic goose egg in the win column there since. Mario, his sons Michael and Jeff, his grandson Marco and his nephew John have run the race 68 times combined with that lone victory. Not only do they have the low win percentage at the track, but the bad things that have happened to many of them at the track, particularly when they had the best car or best shot at winning have led to the famed “Andretti Curse.”

Everybody wants a good story, even the oddsmakers. Marco Andretti winning the Indianapolis 500 this Memorial Day weekend and snapping a curse that goes back 45 years would be one helluva great story.

However, the reasoning for being the “favorite” just doesn’t add up. Marco Andretti could very well go out there on Sunday afternoon and make me eat my words by winning the race, and more power to him, but if you want a real favorite take Castroneves or Dixon. Marco hasn’t earned that title.